The Trump Effect: Europe arms itself and continues to support Ukraine

After debates lasting almost six hours, European leaders agreed yesterday at European Council that EU member states urgently need rearmament to increase their defence and security capacities and capabilities in the face of the current challenges posed by the Russian Federation's continuation of the war in Ukraine, the volatility of the situation in the Middle East and the threats from the Trump Administration regarding a withdrawal or reduction of American support for European defence.

Therefore, the European Council decided yesterday to give the green light to the plan proposed by Ursula von der Leyen, two days ago, regarding the rearmament of EU member states and the strengthening of the defence industry, which will be financed with 800 billion euros, 650 billion from European and national funds and 150 billion euros from loans. Regarding the way in which this plan will be put into practice, this will be established at the next extraordinary European summit to be held later this month.

• ReArm EU - a program for defense investments in EU member states and Ukraine

Ahead of the summit, Ursula von der Leyen - the President of the European Commission - introduced into the equation regarding the future ReArm EU program a theme that she did not mention two days ago when she presented the program: the money could also be used to strengthen the defense industry in Ukraine and to purchase military equipment and weapons needed until the end of the war with Russia.

Ursula von der Leyen stated: "This is a difficult moment, in which we must take the necessary measures. This is an important, crucial moment for Europe, and Ukraine is a future member of the EU - so it is an important moment for it too. Europe is facing real dangers and must be able to protect itself, to defend itself, just as we have put Ukraine in a position to defend itself and to force the negotiation of a just and lasting peace. We want a lasting peace. That is why I am proposing the ReArm plan, which needs 800 billion euros in defense investments. We will give EU Member States the fiscal space to invest in their own defence and to invest in Ukraine's defence, both in its industry and in the acquisition of the capabilities needed in its fight to defend its independence and territorial sovereignty. We will support Ukraine for as long as it needs to."

The statement was made in the presence of Antonio Costa, President of the European Council, and Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine, who was invited to yesterday's event in Brussels.

Antonio Costa, for his part, said: "This is a very important moment for building European security. A month ago we had an informal meeting, but today we will take decisions that we will put into practice. I thank the European Commission for quickly presenting a concrete proposal that gives us the opportunity to take a quick decision to increase defence funding, to spend efficiently and to build the necessary capabilities. Europe's security and defence are not separate from Ukraine's security and defence. The stronger our defense, the more we can increase Ukraine's defense capacity, and a strong defense capacity of Ukraine will lead to the strengthening of the defense capacity of the European Union. We will stand by Ukraine until it considers that the necessary conditions for negotiating a lasting and just peace are met, and we will assist it in the negotiations. We will also stand by Ukraine in the process of its integration into the EU".

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said: "Today's event sends a strong signal to everyone, especially after everything that has happened recently. It is a strong signal to the Ukrainian people, to our soldiers, to volunteers and civilians, and shows us that we are not alone in our fight. It is a signal that support for us will increase, but also that Europe will increase its defense capacity and security".

He stated that during the meeting he had with Antonio Costa and Ursula von der Leyen on the occasion of the summit, he discussed with them on supporting Ukraine on air defense, timely delivery of weapons and ammunition for military forces on the front against Russia, strengthening the defense industry, EU accession negotiations, the need to increase sanctions pressure on Russia and combat sanctions evasion.

• European Council intervenes at the last minute, according to Roberta Metsola

Roberta Metsola, President of the European Parliament, criticized the lateness of the European Council's decisions on strengthening defense and security. Roberta Metsola said: "The message of the European Parliament to the European Council on defense is that finally European leaders are taking decisions. This is what we have been asking for a very long time, namely that the European Union should be able to cope, to defend itself. That is why we asked to move to the next level: we need to prepare, produce and protect. This is what European citizens are asking us to do, this is what we need to do to make Europe ready: to allocate money where it is most needed. The situation in Ukraine is the same as it was three years ago. Ukraine is fighting for Europe and we must support it, because it is fighting for our security and our values. Ukraine's security means Europe's security. Today, more than ever, we need to be together and support Ukraine."

Kaja Kallas, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, said: "We need to see how we can rapidly increase the level of European defence and security. We have several options for financing European defence, such as providing grants, reallocating some of the cohesion funds and changing some of the tax rules. This is very important because we need to invest more in defence and support Ukraine more, so that it can become stronger and end the war on the terms it wants. Europe shows unity and finds solutions in these troubled times."

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, former President of the European Council, said that war, geopolitical uncertainty and the new arms race started by Putin had left Europe no other option.

"Europe must be prepared for this race, and Russia will lose it just like the Soviet Union almost 40 years ago. From today, Europe will arm itself more wisely and faster than Russia," said Donald Tusk.

Pedro Sanchez, Prime Minister of Spain, told other world leaders that Europe should not be underestimated.

"Over the past seven years, we have shown in critical situations, such as the Covid-19 pandemic, that together we can overcome all obstacles, we can overcome all challenges. And we must overcome them. We agreed to have a stronger European Union, in areas where we previously delegated some responsibility, such as common security and defense. Not just in Eastern Europe, but throughout the EU, including the south of the continent. We are talking about complete security. We have a strong industry, we have capable military forces, we have common values and citizens who enjoy freedom. I believe that together we can respond well and effectively to any challenge that is addressed to us", said Pedro Sanchez.

Viktor Orban, the Prime Minister of Hungary, although he stated that he does not agree with the way in which other European leaders see the peace negotiations in Ukraine, said that he agrees with strengthening the defense capabilities of European nations, noting that decisions regarding those capabilities and the necessary investments must be taken by each EU member state and "should not be drawn up by the bureaucracies in Brussels".

• PPE Summit, before the meeting of European leaders

Some of the presidents and prime ministers present at yesterday's European Council summit participated a few hours earlier at the European People's Party summit, in light of the political affinity they have towards it. At the EPP event, the main topics of discussion were still strengthening European defence and security and supporting Ukraine, both to continue to confront Russian forces and to negotiate a lasting and fair peace.

Manfred Weber, EPP President, said: "Security must be Europe's new commitment! More defence capacity, but also a new quality of responsibility, cooperation and ambition. We need national defence capabilities, a European defence pillar in NATO, a genuine single market and common EU military projects".

For his part, Friedrich Merz, the future Chancellor of Germany, said: "Strength comes from unity. We need to better organise Europe's security, reduce bureaucracy and make our economy more competitive".

The EPP leaders also adopted a declaration of this summit in which they show that Europeans urgently need to strengthen their defence, given the the war in Ukraine, the conflicts in the Middle East provoked by both state and non-state actors, which generate destabilizing effects. "At the same time, new forms of hybrid threats, such as disinformation and cyber attacks, endanger the resilience of our societies and require a holistic approach to preparedness and response. In addition, the new US administration has expressed its intention to redefine and recalibrate its commitment to European security, possibly by allocating fewer resources to the defense of its European allies, while requesting a greater contribution from them to the sharing of burdens within NATO. (...) Although several actions have been initiated in recent years to strengthen European defense, (...) we are still not doing enough, and time is not on our side. To respond to new challenges and to lay the foundations for our strategic autonomy, we must decisively address gaps and inefficiencies in the defense field. The financing of European defence has proven to be the most complex issue in this endeavour. Several options have been explored, including activating the escape clause in the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP), redirecting cohesion funds and/or Next Generation EU (NGEU) funds, or contracting joint EU loans or a special financing mechanism. We should remain open to these options, without sacrificing speed for perfection. However, we must implement decisive measures that send a clear message to both our allies and adversaries about the European Union's commitment to take defence seriously. Collective initiatives, such as the development of a European air defence shield, can help to eliminate major vulnerabilities in our security, while providing incentives for European defence companies and strengthening our defence posture," the EPP leaders said in a statement adopted yesterday.

They also argue that the future of the European Union's defence efforts will be shaped by how the issue of financing is addressed, the structure of the EU's defence instruments and the position adopted towards strategic partners, mainly the US. An open and pragmatic approach, focused on Europe's real military needs, would be beneficial for Europeans in an era of increasing volatility, EPP leaders concluded.