Under the sign of the Leo, in April: Subterfuge and suspicions

• Cristian Sima: "I think the budget deficit is far higher than the one posted by the authorities"

• The scenario of a manipulation similar to that of Greece, unlikely

• The IMF has been monitoring us carefully

• Exporters want an exchange rate of 4.1-4.3 lei/Euro

• Liviu Voinea: "It is not the current depreciation that is unnatural, the appreciation of the leu in the beginning of the year was"

Market sources say it is likely the leu is being kept artificially stable, sources in the market claim, who say that it is possible the Ministry of Public finance has cooked the books when it comes to reporting the budget deficit. Even though forging its economic statistics wouldn"t be a first for a country, the situation is however, unlikely, considering the strictness of the IMF when it comes to the macroeconomic targets it has agreed with the Romanian government for the installments of the loan taken under the Stand-By agreement.

Gheorghe Gherghina, secretary of state in the Ministry of Finance, could not be contacted to comment on the rumors.

The team of IMF experts will arrive in Bucharest again on April 26th.

Cristian Sima, head of brokerage firm WBS Romania, said it was very likely that the data is forged: "I think the budget deficit is far greater than the one published by the authorities". He expects the exchange rate to rise to a maximum of 4.2 lei/Euro, after which "most likely, the NBR will intervene in the market".

The official exchange rate of the NBR rose to a 3-month high on Friday (4.1429 lei/Euro), after dropping to 4.07 lei/Euro in mid March. This is the highest exchange rate since January 21st, when the Euro was quoted at 4.1397 lei.

According to data published by the authorities, the general budget recorded a deficit in February, after posting a slight surplus in January, and the budget gap reached 5.8 billion lei (1.1% of the GDP).

The deficit for the first two months of 2010 doubled compared to last year"s similar period.

Given these facts, there is a major risk that by the end of March Romania may fail to meet the budget deficit target that was set by the agreement with the IMF, of 8.2 billion lei, for Q1 2010.

• What professional associations and analysts say

Mihai Ionescu, the chairman of the National Association of Importers and Exporters in Romania (ANEIR), said: "As long as the exchange rate remains within the 4.1 - 4.3 lei/Euro interval, exporters will do fine". He said he would want for the current exchange rate bracket to remain in place for the entire year 2010, which is a requirement for the growth in exports, which our economy needs.

"The exchange rate is the only factor that can help exports, and if it disappears, and the leu becomes too strong, this would damage exports", said Mihai Ionescu, who added that, with the help of a favorable exchange rate, exporters could recover almost of half of what they lost last year (4.7 billion Euros).

Cristian Pârvan the secretary general of the Romanian association of Businessmen, considers that he evolution of the exchange rate doesn"t follow the evolution of the Romanian economy. "Up to 4.15 lei/euro, the Romanian economy can continue to grow, but data for the first quarter isn"t positive", said Mr. Pârvan.

The head of the Applied Economics Group (GEA), Liviu Voinea, said that an appreciation of the Euro is natural at this moment, because it helps exporters, but most importantly, it helps economic growth resume. "It"s a natural progress. What is unnatural is the appreciation of the leu since the beginning of the year", said Liviu Voinea, who added that the exchange rate will continue to appreciate.

The chief-economist of "Raiffeisen Bank" Romania, Ionuţ Dumitru, said that the fluctuations of the exchange rate are normal, and its recent evolutions are rather stable. bank dealers also say that the volatility of the exchange rate is low, and the cause behind the depreciation of the leu could be the pressure exerted by the buyers of Euros.

The analysts of "ING" Bank Romania on Friday said that the most important factor that affects the markets is the concern over Greece"s sovereign debt.

Most banks expect an exchange rate of 4.0 lei/Euro, at the end of the year. The rumors launched by some analysts claiming that the Romanian authorities are concealing the real budget deficit, should be taken with a grain of salt, because they may simply representing the interests of forex speculators. Only time or the IMF itself will tell us where Romania stands...