Bitcoin set new historical records last year; what do analysts predict for 2025

This year should be favorable for crypto prices, according to most analysts, who estimate that global liquidity will increase, leading to higher capital allocations into risky assets, while the "Donald Trump factor" changes the rules of the game, according to an article published by Cointelegraph at the end of last week.

The inflows into Bitcoin spot-backed ETFs are a key element for driving the price of the world's most well-known cryptocurrency, as more large institutional players like Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch adopt them, especially with Paul Atkins, a crypto industry supporter, appointed as head of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Lastly, the possibility of the United States creating a national Bitcoin reserve could serve as a major catalyst for the cryptocurrency, according to the Cointelegraph article.

• Standard Chartered's chief digital asset analyst estimates Bitcoin will reach $200,000 by the end of this year

Geoff Kendrick, head of the digital asset research department at Standard Chartered Bank, believes Bitcoin will quickly surpass its previous record of $109,000 and may reach $130,000 by March, according to an article published last weekend by Business Insider.

In 2024, Bitcoin saw a spectacular increase, surpassing the $100,000 mark for the first time in history and closing the year with an appreciation of about 120%.

In the analyst's opinion, the slight price drop observed after Donald Trump's inauguration at the White House is explained by the market's excessive optimism regarding the decisions the U.S. president was expected to make at the beginning of his term regarding the crypto industry. During his election campaign, Trump had stated that he would make the U.S. the "crypto capital of the planet" and that the United States might create a strategic Bitcoin reserve. However, at the end of January, Trump ordered the creation of a task force to reform regulations for digital assets and explore the possibility of creating a national cryptocurrency reserve, which did not meet industry expectations, according to the mentioned source.

"But now, when the order has been signed and the Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged, the uncertainties that brought headwinds to crypto have diminished," said Kendrick.

• "The SEC's removal of a regulation discouraging banks from engaging in cryptocurrency custody will stimulate institutional demand for digital assets," says the Standard Chartered analyst

Kendrick also believes that the "DeepSeek event" from the beginning of last week, when the launch of a Chinese AI application, which allegedly required much lower costs than applications from American giants, shocked the U.S. stock market, is beneficial for Bitcoin. "Market positioning is now much clearer, and if a cheaper AI app reduces inflation (even marginally), then risky assets like Bitcoin, which are unrelated to AI, would benefit," Kendrick said, as quoted by Business Insider.

The analyst claims that although Trump's order disappointed those hoping the U.S. president would immediately announce the creation of a national Bitcoin reserve, other countries may come up with this idea.

According to the Financial Times, it is possible that the Czech National Bank could turn 5% of its euro140 billion reserves into Bitcoin, if Governor Ale¹ Michl's plan is approved. "At current prices, the bank would hold 69,000 Bitcoins. The largest known official Bitcoin holding (by a country) is held by El Salvador, with 6,049 Bitcoins," Kendrick calculated.

The analyst added that the Swiss National Bank also seems to be moving towards adopting Bitcoin, with Swiss activists gathering signatures to force a vote on the matter. Although the process could take time, the move is important because Swiss reserves are six times larger than those in the Czech Republic, said Kendrick.

In the meantime, the SEC's removal of a regulation (Staff Accounting Bulletin 121) that discouraged banks from engaging in cryptocurrency custody will stimulate institutional demand for the digital asset. Institutional investors' purchases through ETFs are the key aspect of Kendrick's Bitcoin forecast, which sees the cryptocurrency reaching $200,000 by the end of this year, writes Business Insider.

"We would be even more optimistic if there were a rapid adoption of Bitcoin by U.S. pension funds, sovereign funds, or a potential strategic reserve fund in the United States," the strategist stated at the end of last year, as quoted by CNBC.

• Galaxy Digital's chief analyst estimates Bitcoin will reach $185,000 in the last part of this year

Alex Thorn, the chief analyst at crypto asset manager Galaxy Digital, sees the cryptocurrency surpassing the $150,000 mark in the first half of the year before reaching $185,000 in the fourth quarter, according to an article published by CNBC last month.

"The combination of institutional, corporate, and national adoption will propel Bitcoin to new heights in 2025," Thorn wrote in a note. "Throughout its existence, Bitcoin has appreciated faster than all other asset classes, especially the S&P 500 and gold, and this trend will continue in 2025. Additionally, Bitcoin will reach 20% of the gold market cap."

Galaxy estimates that assets managed by Bitcoin spot ETFs will exceed $250 billion this year, and that five companies from the Nasdaq 100 and five states will include Bitcoin in their balance sheets and sovereign funds. As of the end of last week, the value of assets in Bitcoin ETFs stood at $61 billion, according to etf.com.

• Bitwise: "Bitcoin's Ascension Will Likely Be Driven by Inflows into Bitcoin Spot ETFs, Which Will Accelerate in 2025"

The year 2025 will be "transformational" for the crypto market, and Bitcoin will surpass the $200,000 threshold, according to Bitwise Asset Management, the largest crypto asset manager in the world, in its December report on predictions for this year, quoted by CryptoSlate.

According to Bitwise's team, Bitcoin's rise will likely be fueled by inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs, which will accelerate in 2025 as more institutional investors allocate larger portions of their portfolios to the cryptocurrency.

Additionally, there is a possibility that the U.S. government will develop a strategic reserve of Bitcoin, triggering a global race between nations to secure their holdings of digital assets, the Bitwise report also states, as referenced by CryptoSlate.

• Founder of Crypto Capital Venture: "I Don't Think Trump's Tariffs Ended the Bullish Cycle; BlackRock Continues to Accumulate Ethereum and Bitcoin"

Donald Trump signed an executive order late last week to impose import tariffs on goods from China, Canada, and Mexico, later suspending their implementation for 30 days for the latter two countries.

Tariffs can increase inflation, which may lead to higher interest rates, causing investors to move away from riskier assets like crypto and toward traditional ones such as bonds and fixed-term deposits, writes Cointelegraph.

Crypto Capital Venture founder Dan Gambardello doesn't think the tariffs will have a major impact on the market. "I can't believe there's a widespread opinion that Trump's tariffs and his meme coins ended the bullish cycle. BlackRock continues to accumulate Ethereum and Bitcoin, while retail investors are panicking as the crypto market is currently consolidating," Gambardello said, according to the aforementioned source.

Jeff Park, a strategist at Bitwise Invest, stated that "a sustained trade war would be amazing for Bitcoin in the long term," but other crypto market commentators disagree.

Adam Cochran, a partner at Cinneamhain Ventures, believes Bitcoin is not sufficiently separated from global markets, currently trading like tech stocks but with more volatility. "Such an economic pressure would mean pain for everyone," Cochran said, quoted by Cointelegraph.

• Eugene Fama: "Cryptocurrencies Do Not Have a Stable Real Value, But an Extremely Variable Value; Such a Medium of Exchange Should Not Survive"

Eugene Fama, the pioneer of the efficient market theory and Nobel laureate in economics, is almost certain that Bitcoin will become worthless in the next decade, according to an article published last weekend in ProMarket, a publication of the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.

"Cryptocurrencies are an enigma because they violate all the rules of a medium of exchange. They do not have a stable real value; they have an extremely variable real value. And such a medium of exchange should not survive," Fama explained in an interview on the Capitalisn't podcast, hosted by Luigi Zingales and Bethany McLean.

Fama's skepticism stems from the fundamental contradictions in Bitcoin's design. As Zingales explained during the discussion, the problem with all cryptocurrencies is that, to build trust in the system, the supply is limited, so the price is entirely determined by demand. But this fixed supply, combined with fluctuating demand, leads to price volatility, making Bitcoin unsuitable as a currency, according to the mentioned source.

When asked about the probability of Bitcoin's value reaching zero in ten years, Fama replied, "I'd say it's close to one." However, the economist acknowledged there is significant uncertainty about the timing of the potential collapse.

On the other hand, Fama suggested that if Bitcoin maintains its value in the long term, a fundamental rethink of how economists understand money and markets will be necessary, writes ProMarket.