The West is not keeping pace with Russia in terms of supplying weapons to the Ukrainian front

NATO and the European Union cannot keep up with the Russian Federation regarding the delivery of weapons and military equipment to the front in Ukraine, according to an analysis prepared for the publication France Soir by Oleg Nesterenko, president of the European Center for Trade and Industry.

The quoted source shows that, according to Western sources and information presented by the North Atlantic Alliance, at the moment Russia produces around 250,000 shells per month, that is, almost 3 million shells per year, which is practically three times the production capacity of all member countries NATO and the EU.

In that analysis it is specified: "This information does not take into account the deliveries of ammunition from Russia's partner countries, deliveries whose volumes are unknown but estimated to be considerable, nor the fact that the Russian defense industry is only at the development stage , with production peaking only in 2025. The reality of Russian production capabilities and access to ammunition may therefore be even more unpleasant for the Russian Federation's adversaries."

The author of the analysis recalls that on April 24, 2024, US President Joe Biden approved the draft law on the allocation of military aid to Ukraine in the amount of 56 billion euros. For its part, the Kremlin has adapted its economy to military needs by increasing defense spending from 3.9 percent in 2023 to 6 percent of GDP by 2024. The cited source said Bloomberg reported that Moscow's defense spending has increased from 6.4 trillion rubles to 10.8 trillion rubles - that is, almost 106 billion euros, which means a 2.5-fold increase compared to 2021, the year before the start of the invasion from Ukraine. The analysis in France-Soir draws attention to how the European defense industry works compared to the defense industry of the Russian Federation: "In order not to make mistakes when assessing the parity and proportionality of investments in the defense sector in general and, in the conflict from Ukraine, in particular, it is important to keep in mind one key element: while the activity of companies in the Western military industry is mainly governed by the pursuit of profits - just like in the civilian industry - the situation in this sector is radically different in Russia, where all companies in the defense industry are under direct state control, which allows, among other things, to maintain final production costs five or ten times lower than those of Western companies, for the same range of manufactured weapons and ammunition. It is certain that if Western defense industry firms relied on something other than generating considerable profit margins related to the production and sale of arms and ammunition, Kiev could benefit from the latter's supplies in a much more consistent manner than the one we have known since 2014".

The cited source also shows that, according to the estimates of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, in two years of war, Western countries have promised Ukraine about 250 billion euros of support and have already allocated almost ¾ of this amount. From the total amount, Ukraine received until the beginning of April 2024 almost 102 billion euros in the title of military support, of which 35 billion euros from the European Union, 43 billion euros from the USA and 24 billion euros from the EU member states and from other Western NATO member states.

The author of the analysis also states that the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) published a report on the military budgets of various countries for the year 2023, from which it appears that the military aid already granted to Ukraine is comparable to the military budget of France for 2 years, larger than North Korea's 2-year military budget, Israel's 4-year military budget, and Turkey's 7-year military budget. The main providers of military aid to Ukraine are the United States of America, Germany, Great Britain, the EU and Norway. If at the beginning of the conflict the allies supplied Ukraine exclusively with Soviet equipment still remaining in the countries of Eastern Europe, due to the lack of depleted stocks, since last year they began to transfer more modern weapons.

In mid-2023, Forbes Ukraine journalists showed that from February 2022 until then, Ukraine received from the NATO bloc more than 3,000 armored vehicles, more than 2,000 infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers, and almost 400 units of self-propelled artillery.

The cited source states: "According to data published in December 2023 by journalists from The Wall Street Journal, during the war against Russia, Ukraine received over 600 howitzers, over 800 tanks and almost 100 multiple missile launch systems. By comparison, the British Army, which is the main ally of the United States, has only 150 tanks and perhaps a dozen long-range artillery pieces in working order, France has a little over 90 heavy artillery units. , and in Germany, in case of war, the available ammunition will only be enough for 2 days of intense fighting".

In terms of aircraft and helicopter deliveries, according to Forbes, Ukraine received 50 helicopters and 80 Soviet Sukhoi and MIG fighter jets. Denmark, the Netherlands, Norway, and Belgium have pledged to deliver between 45 and 60 F16 fighter jets, but because some of the arms and equipment deliveries are not made public, it is difficult to accurately estimate the exact amount of aircraft protecting today the sky of Ukraine.

The cited source states that, despite the very large volume of military aid, the intensity of the fighting is such that the delivered equipment is continuously destroyed, and the shortage on the Ukrainian side is constant. Thus, at the end of April 2024, Forbes headlined: "Ukraine needs another 1,000 armored personnel carriers. Canada needs a year to deliver 50". Using Canada as an example, the journalists of that publication wanted to highlight the failure of the entire Western military support system. While Canada supplies Ukraine with 50 armored personnel carriers in a year, Russian Federation forces destroy approximately 500 such personnel carriers from the air on the ground.

The conclusion of the author of the analysis is clear: if the West does not increase its pace of production or if it does not send to the Ukrainian front more efficient combat equipment than the ones owned by the Russian Federation, it will be difficult for the Ukrainian forces to hold the front line in the current coordinates.