Trump: NATO countries that do not increase their defense budget to 5% of GDP risk losing US support

NATO member states that do not increase their defense spending to 5% of Gross Domestic Product will no longer have US protection in the event of a conflict, US President-elect Donald Trump said at a press conference in Palm Beach, USA, according to France 24.

According to the quoted source, Donald Trump said: "NATO member states can afford to allocate more to the defense budget. The level of spending should be increased from 2% to 5% of GDP. Those who do not pay will not have the guarantee that the US will get involved when security problems arise."

The demand of Trump, who is expected to begin his second term in the White House on January 20, 2024, has sparked intense debate, especially since according to the agreement from the 2014 summit in Wales, the contribution of each NATO member state must be at least 2% of GDP, a threshold that had not been reached by some European states even in 2024. Practically, last year, out of the 32 NATO member states, only 23 respected the obligation to spend 2% of GDP on defense. The only member states that exceeded this threshold are Poland - 4% of GDP and the Baltic countries - Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania - whose defense contribution was around 3% of GDP last year. Romania also did not reach the target declared by President Iohannis in 2023, i.e. 2.5% of GDP. In fact, since the 2014 NATO summit, although the authorities in Bucharest have annually allocated 2% of GDP to defense, in reality they have spent between 1.6 and 1.8% of GDP annually according to the annual reports published by the Stockholm-based International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), which means that we have not reached the minimum limit established 10 years ago. Moreover, part of the allocation for 2023 and 2024 was moved by Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, at the request of the Ministry of Finance, to other areas of activity, so the 2.5% allocation that President Iohannis and the Bucharest Government have boasted about in the last two years at NATO meetings was much lower in reality.

• Germany rejects Trump's request

Donald Trump's position is supported by Mark Rutte, NATO Secretary General, who states according to the cited source that "Europe must spend much more to ensure its defense".

Among the European states that are reluctant to increase the defense budget is Germany, which has been facing a limitation of public spending in recent years. Therefore, Chancellor Olaf Scholz vehemently criticized the recent proposal made by the environmentalist Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck to increase the defense budget to 3.5% of GDP, considering it an exaggerated measure.

"The idea of increasing defense spending from 2 to 3.5% of GDP, above the threshold allowed by NATO, seems unjustified to me. The allocated military budget is almost doubled: it will increase from almost 80 billion euros currently to 140 billion euros. Where will this money come from? And who will pay for this increase? The citizens?" Olaf Scholz said, according to the German daily Der Spiegel. In response, Habeck argued that a massive increase in the defense budget is essential to deter threats from Russia. "We need to spend almost twice as much on our defense so that Putin does not dare to attack us," Habeck said, according to the source cited.

Despite these differences, Germany has already taken important steps to strengthen its armed forces. Olaf Scholz created a special fund of 100 billion euros in 2022, after the start of the war in Ukraine, intended for the rearmament and modernization of the German army.

• France rejects American dominance in the European defense industry

A special chapter regarding defense is represented by companies in the related industry, which are in urgent need of financing to meet the requirements for replenishing the stocks of weapons and military equipment in each European member state of NATO, stocks that were emptied by donations made to support the Ukrainian armed forces following the war illegally started, almost two years ago, by the Russian Federation.

European companies fear that the increase in the defense contribution will be strictly reflected in the accounts of American defense giants and will not help the development of this sector of activity in the member states of the European Union. Among the European states that do not want EU money allocated for defense to reach American companies is France, whose political leaders want the amounts to benefit companies from the old continent. The leaders in Paris have accused the Netherlands and Poland of wanting to finance the acquisition and production of non-EU military equipment made under license on European soil, such as the United States' Patriot air defense systems or South Korean equipment.

French Armed Forces Minister Sebastien Lecornu said yesterday, quoted by Politico, that France will not contribute to the financial effort regarding the defense of the European Union, if this effort will have the effect of stimulating local representations of American or other third-country companies and not the development of European arms manufacturers. Lecornu said that, if American companies were among the beneficiaries of the European Defense Industry Program - which aims to spend 1.5 billion euros to promote arms manufacturers in the bloc -, then it would be better for EU states to abandon this program.

We note that the program in question is still being negotiated within the EU Council, whose presidency was taken over by Poland on January 1.

France - which has the EU's largest defense industry - wants to ensure that the continent retains its own military-industrial complex and does not become too dependent on Washington. For example, America's Patriot competes directly with the Franco-Italian SAMP/T system made by MBDA, as well as the next generation of that system.

In his New Year's speech, quoted by Politico, Sebastien Lecornu said: "The European agenda to support the defense industry is useful, but it must not lead to spending European taxpayers' money on the licensed production of American equipment. That is what is at stake in the current negotiations on the EDIP, on which we will not budge... In this area, it is better to do nothing than to do something wrong."

The French Minister of the Armed Forces also said that armament priorities must "remain the responsibility of the member states, which are sovereign in defining their operational and capacity requirements" and stated that he wants the government in Paris to spend 3 billion euros more in 2025 than last year on equipping the French army.