Ukraine conflict: new intervention options considered by NATO and European leaders

As the conflict in Ukraine continues to escalate, NATO and its European allies are considering new and more ambitious options to support Kiev. According to sources cited by Le Monde and other French and American publications, sensitive discussions have resumed in recent days on the possibility of directly involving Western troops or private defense companies in the conflict, in an effort to ensure regional stability and counter Russian advances.

Recall that the Biden administration recently stepped up military support for Ukraine, authorizing the use of long-range missiles against Russia. France followed suit, approving the use of Scalp missiles by Ukrainian forces. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot stressed that this decision is in the "logic of self-defense" and reiterated France's commitment to support Ukraine "for as long as necessary".

"We will support Ukraine as intensely and for as long as necessary. Why? Because our security is at stake. Every time the Russian army advances by one square kilometre, the threat moves one square kilometre closer to Europe," the French foreign minister said, according to Le Monde. Asked by the BBC whether this could even mean sending French troops to the war, Barrot replied: "We are not ruling out any option."

The French official's statement that no option was being ruled out fuelled speculation about a possible more direct military involvement. According to the source, these discussions have recently resumed amid uncertainties about US support after Donald Trump takes office in January 2025. Le Monde reported that high-level discussions about the involvement of Western troops in the war have intensified recently: "As the conflict in Ukraine enters a new phase of escalation, according to our sources, discussions about sending Western troops and private defense companies to Ukraine have been relaunched. These are sensitive discussions, most of them classified, resumed in light of a possible American withdrawal of support for Kiev once Donald Trump takes office on January 20, 2025. (...) Discussions are underway between Britain and France on defense cooperation, in particular with a view to creating a hard core of allies in Europe, focused on Ukraine and wider European security."

In this context, NATO leaders are considering all available options, while trying to balance military support with the risks of escalating the conflict. Similarly, officials stressed the importance of economic cooperation and securing supply chains to ensure resilience in the face of a possible "war scenario."

In a recent statement, the chairman of the NATO military committee, Admiral Rob Bauer, warned business leaders to prepare for the possibility of extended tensions, citing Europe's dependence on critical resources from China and other regions. Bauer highlighted the need to reduce economic vulnerabilities that could be exploited in the event of further acts of sabotage or an escalation of the conflict.

"Companies must adjust their production and distribution lines to cope with any disruptions, because economies win wars," said Rob Bauer, emphasizing the link between economic decisions and national security.

Although the discussions about direct involvement of Western troops are largely classified, they reflect growing concerns among European allies about the development of the conflict. NATO and European leaders are trying to find a balance between supporting Ukraine and avoiding a wider conflict, which could have unpredictable consequences. As the world awaits further decisions, it remains to be seen whether diplomacy and international cooperation can provide a solution that ensures regional stability without escalating the conflict.