Global trade accentuated its decline

The volume of global trade registered an annual decrease of 2.5% in June 2023, after a decline of 2.1% in the previous month and 0.8% in April 2023, according to the latest World Trade Monitor report from the Dutch institute CPB ( www.cpb.nl). The monthly decline in June 2023 was 0.7%, after a 0.5% increase in the previous month (see chart).

Global imports accelerated their annual decline to 3.7% from 2.9% on the back of a 1.2% monthly decline, and exports accelerated their annual decline to 1.3% from 1.2%, in the conditions of a monthly decline of 0.2%.

Trade volume from emerging economies fell at an annual rate of 1.7%, following a 0.1% decline in the previous month, amid a 0.8% monthly decline, and trade volume from advanced economies moderated its annual decline to 2.8%, from 3%, amid a monthly decline of 0.7%.

Imports of advanced economies fell by an annual rate of 4.9% in June 2023, on the back of a 1.4% monthly decline, and exports decreased by an annual rate of 0.6%, after a decline of 1.7 % in the previous month, in the conditions of a monthly increase of 0.1%.

In emerging economies, imports fell by an annual rate of 0.9%, after rising 0.3% in the previous month, amid a 0.6% monthly decline, while exports accelerated their decline annual up to 2.6%, from 0.5% in the previous month, in the conditions of a monthly decrease of 0.9%.

China's trade grew at an annual rate of 3% in June 2023, after a 2.1% decline in the previous month, amid a 3% monthly increase. Exports from Asia's largest economy moderated their annual decline to 1.3% from 5.1% amid a 2.5% monthly rise, and imports accelerated their annual growth to 7, 9%, from 1.3%, in the conditions of a monthly increase of 3.6%.

At the level of emerging economies in Asia, excluding China, there was a significant monthly decrease in trade of 5%, and the annual decrease was 9.5%, after an increase of 0.1% in the previous month. The volume of exports decreased by an annual rate of 8.4%, after an increase of 0.2%, in the conditions of a monthly decrease of 3.2%, and the volume of imports decreased by an annual rate of 10.5%, after a stagnation in the previous month, against the background of a monthly decrease of 6.7%.

The volume of trade in Central and Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) increased by an annual rate of 4.7% in June 2023, after a 9.9% increase in the previous month, against the background of a monthly decrease of 4.7%. The volume of exports increased with an annual rate of 4.7%, after an advance of 10.2%, in the conditions of a monthly decrease of 6.4%, and imports increased with an annual rate of 5.2%, after a up 9.6%, against a 2.2% monthly decline.

The euro zone trade volume index fell at an annual rate of 3.6%, following a 2.2% drop in the previous month, amid a 2.3% monthly decline. Imports fell at an annual rate of 5.4%, following a 2.5% decline, amid a 3.7% monthly decline, and exports fell at an annual rate of 1.7%, following a decline of 1.8%, in the conditions of a monthly decrease of 1%.

US trade fell at a 0.2% monthly rate, following a 0.5% decline in the previous month, amid a 0.6% rise in exports and a 1% drop in imports. The annual decrease was 0.7%, after a decrease of 0.4%, amid a 2.9% annual increase in exports and a 3.7% annual decrease in imports.

Japan's trade volume fell at an annual rate of 2% in June 2023, after a 6% drop in the previous month, amid a 3.9% monthly increase. Exports rose at an annual rate of 1.1%, on the back of a 5.2% monthly increase, and imports fell at an annual rate of 4.9%, after an 8.3% drop in the previous month, in the conditions of a monthly increase of 2.8%.

The dynamics of commercial exchanges in Latin America was mainly influenced by exports. They recorded a monthly decline of 2.3%, after a 5.9% advance in the previous month, and the annual decline was 0.6%, after a 4.6% increase. The total volume of trade recorded an annual decrease of 2.5%, after an increase of 0.7%, against the background of a monthly decrease of 1.1%, as imports decreased by an annual rate of 4, 3%, after a 3.2% decline following a 0.1% monthly increase.

Data from the Dutch institute CPB also shows a 0.8% annual decline in global industrial production in June 2023, after a 0.5% decline in the previous month, on the back of a 0.2% monthly advance.

In advanced economies, industrial production accelerated its annual decline to 2.5% from 2.3% in the previous month, amid a monthly stagnation.

Annual growth at the level of emerging economies was 2.2%, after an advance of 2.7% in the previous month, in the conditions of a monthly increase of 0.6%, against the background of a monthly increase of 0.2% in industrial production from Central and Eastern Europe, a monthly advance of 1.2% in China and a monthly increase of 0.2% in the emerging economies of Asia, excluding China.

While industrial production in the euro area fell at an annual rate of 2.7%, following a 2.5% drop in the previous month, amid a 0.4% monthly decline, US industrial production fell by an annual rate of 0.8%, after stagnating in the previous month, amid a monthly decline of 0.8%.